Alberta’s Federal Election Fallout
On Monday afternoon, Premier Danielle Smith gave a live address that was clearly intended for a nation-wide audience. Citing familiar grievances with Ottawa and the federal government, the address felt more like setting the stage for the next provincial election question than an update.
In fact, one may reasonably assume when reading between the lines, that the next provincial election could be called early – 2026 to be specific. When speaking to the creation of an “Alberta Next” panel, Premier Smith spoke of their mandate to deliberate Alberta’s future in Canada.
“After the work of the panel is finished, it is likely we will place some of the more popular ideas discussed with the panel to a provincial referendum so all Albertans can vote on them sometime in 2026.”
Similar to placing the equalization referendum on the 2021 municipal election ballot, the goal of this could very well be to attract more conservative voters to the polls to capitalize on frustrations they hold with the federal government in Ottawa. And now, the provincial government is warming up to the idea of a question on separation being put to a referendum vote.
“To be clear from the outset, our government will not be putting a vote on separation from Canada on the referendum ballot; however, if there is a successful citizen-led referendum petition that is able to gather the requisite number of signatures requesting such a question to be put to a referendum, our government will respect the democratic process and include that question on the 2026 provincial referendum ballot as well.”
While the Premier has attempted to wash her hands of the question, it is difficult to reconcile given her government tabled legislation immediately following the federal election to make it easier to get a question on the ballot (reducing the number of signatures required and increasing the amount of time to collect them).
Also included were a list of demands from the Premier:
Guaranteed corridor and port access to tidewater off the Pacific, Arctic and Atlantic coasts for the international export of Alberta oil, gas, critical minerals and other resources in amounts supported by the free market, rather than by the dictates and whims of Ottawa.
The end of all federal interference in the development of provincial resources by repealing the no new pipelines law Bill C-69, the oil tanker ban, the net zero electricity regulations, the oil and gas emissions cap, the net zero vehicle mandate, and any federal law or regulation that purports to regulate industrial carbon emissions, plastics or the commercial free speech of energy companies.
The federal government must refrain from imposing export taxes or restrictions on the export of Alberta resources without the consent of the Government of Alberta.
The federal government must provide to Alberta the same per-capita federal transfers and equalization as is received by the other three largest provinces – Quebec, Ontario and British Columbia
Following the Premier’s address, Naheed Nenshi held his own address on behalf of the Alberta NDP. While he very much contrasted what Premier Smith said, he did acknowledge certain frustrations Albertans do have with the federal government.
“And certainly, Albertans have not had the best deal from confederation. I’ve never shied away from saying that. Equalization is not fair. I worked so hard as Mayor of Calgary with the Premier of Alberta to secure one pipeline to tidewater – and conservatives haven’t been able to build one since. We don’t have access for our resources. We don’t have respect for not just our economic power but our social innovation that happens here.”
But he stressed that the fight is with Donald Trump and the United States, not with the federal government. And he offered demands of his own to the premier.
“Premier, you have two choices. Actually denounce separatism – no ifs, no ands, no buts. Say you are a proud Canadian, you’re a proud Albertan and you won’t stand for a referendum – or just call a referendum. Just do it… Let’s ask Albertans to decide and when you get the resounding thumping defeat that you so richly deserve, let’s get on with the job of building a better Alberta and a better Canada.”
Suffice it to say – the campaign for the next provincial election has officially soft-launched. It seems as though Albertans may not have to wait until 2027 to decide the political future of our province, so expect both the UCP and Alberta NDP to start ramping up fundraising and outreach efforts for the next number of months.