Did Alberta Dodge a Fall Provincial Election? Questions from the By-Elections
On behalf of all of us here at Alberta Counsel, we hope you had a wonderful and festive Canada Day!
By-elections typically don’t dominate headlines in Alberta politics, but the three that took place on Monday, June 23 were anything but ordinary. Each race carried high stakes for the parties involved and bore significant symbolic weight for the province's political direction.
The Context Behind the Contests
By-elections often occur under unique circumstances, filling seats vacated due to resignations or other changes. While voter turnout is usually low, the outcomes can signal larger trends or foreshadow changes in government strategy.
This round featured three ridings:
Edmonton-Strathcona, where NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi sought election to officially enter the Legislature;
Edmonton-Ellerslie, a battleground where the UCP aimed to regain a foothold in the capital;
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, where the Republican Party tried to convert growing separatist frustrations into legislative representation.
Edmonton-Strathcona: Nenshi’s Commanding Entrance
Perhaps the most high-profile contest was in Edmonton-Strathcona, historically a stronghold for the NDP and once held by former leader Raj Pannu and former Premier Rachel Notley. The question of his victory was never really about whether or not he would win – but by how much he would win by.
Nenshi, the former Calgary mayor with national name recognition, was expected to win handily—and he did. His commanding performance—7,952 votes compared to just 1,314 for the UCP candidate—was not just a win; it was a reaffirmation of NDP dominance in Strathcona. While some saw the race as a formality, it was still symbolically powerful. Nenshi’s presence in the Legislature allows him to participate directly in debates and to be much more public facing on a daily basis during session.
This win also secures a relatively safe launch pad from which Nenshi can build bridges beyond Edmonton and Calgary. However, his real test will be expanding the NDP's appeal to smaller urban centres and rural voters, which will be essential in future general elections.
Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills: The Republican Surge Falls Short
In rural Alberta, the UCP faced pressure from the Republican Party, a new player harnessing the growing separatist sentiment among certain conservative voters who feel alienated by federal policies. The party hoped to capitalize on these frustrations and elect its first MLA in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, traditionally a UCP stronghold.
Despite the noise, the result was anticlimactic. Tara Sawyer, the UCP candidate, cruised to victory with 9,363 votes, the largest total across all three races. The NDP came in second, indicating that while the Republican Party generated some chatter, it failed to consolidate meaningful electoral support.
Edmonton-Ellerslie: The Real Battleground
If Edmonton-Strathcona was a formality and Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills a confirmation of rural loyalty, Edmonton-Ellerslie was the true contest—both numerically and politically. In what turned out to be the closest race of the night, Gurtej Singh Brar of the NDP edged out former MLA Naresh Bhardwaj of the UCP by a margin of just over 1,000 votes.
But the story doesn’t end with a simple NDP hold.
Compared to the 2023 general election, the NDP’s share of the popular vote in Ellerslie dropped significantly. However, it is worth highlighting that there were fewer total votes cast in the 2025 by-election than what the Alberta NDP alone earned in the 2023 general election, so the difference in percentage is not as significant as it would otherwise be.
With that said, one takeaway from the Ellerslie race is that the UCP is not going to simply resign themselves to suburban Edmonton staying NDP orange in the next general election. The party put significant resources and effort into the Ellerslie race, and it is expected they will put up strong fights on ridings that align with Anthony Henday Drive.
A Missed Opportunity for the UCP?
Had the UCP managed to flip Edmonton-Ellerslie, the political narrative in Alberta could have shifted dramatically. A win in a decade-long NDP suburban seat would have been a massive breakthrough in the capital city for Premier Danielle Smith’s party. Had the results gone the other way, it may have even prompted a conversation about triggering a snap provincial election in the fall.
Why?
The UCP is currently enjoying a province-wide polling advantage. A surprise victory in Ellerslie could have emboldened the party to capitalize on that momentum and secure a renewed four-year mandate, following the playbook used by Doug Ford’s Progressive Conservatives in Ontario.
While that scenario didn’t come to pass, the close result in Ellerslie will nonetheless encourage the UCP. It suggests that some urban ridings may be more in play than previously thought. It also sends a warning shot to the NDP that simply holding traditional seats may no longer be enough without proactive engagement and a compelling new vision under Nenshi.
What Comes Next? Election Timing, Referendums, and Separation Sentiment
With the by-elections behind us, attention now turns to the timing of the next general election. While the next fixed date isn’t until 2027, Premier Smith retains the prerogative to call an early election, and the possibility remains open—albeit less likely after the Ellerslie result.
More plausibly, insiders point to 2026 as a potential target. One potential strategy for the Premier would be to utilize the results of the Alberta Next Panel consultations to attract more conservative-leaning voters to the polls in tandem with referendum questions such as the provincial pension plan (which was previously rebuked by the public in a government survey) or a provincial police force – among others.
While the province insists it will not put forward a referendum on independence itself, it has actively made it easier for the public to put forward a referendum question of its own.
But this strategy comes with risks. Even the mere presence of a separation referendum on the ballot could further polarize the electorate and mobilize progressive or centrist voters who fear Alberta veering toward extremism.
Moreover, the specter of internal party fragmentation—evidenced by the rise of third parties like the Alberta Republicans and Wildrose offshoots—could siphon off just enough support in key ridings to spoil otherwise safe races. We aren’t there yet, but Alberta has seen the results of vote splitting on the right first hand.
For now, all eyes will be focused on the Alberta Legislature when the fall session begins at the end of October. The NDP will finally have their new leader join them in the house and formally begin his duties as an MLA. The clash between Nenshi and Premier Smith has been anticipated since he won the NDP leadership last June, and it is expected we will see plenty of fireworks.
The UCP will also lean heavily on their newly elected MLA Tara Sawyer to ease tensions in the riding of Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills. While the UCP won handily, they did lose a solid chunk of voters to the Republicans (despite their third-place finish). Her appointment to the Alberta Next Panel was a clear strategic attempt to give residents of the riding (and others like it) the feeling that they have a voice at the table.
Finally, the new NDP MLA in Edmonton-Ellerslie will join the opposition caucus in time for Stampede season. The party will want to build that riding back to the levels of support it has seen in recent general elections, so one way to do that is to help MLA-elect Brar build a profile at the largest political networking stage in the province.