UCP Candidates Hoping to Lasso Some Support at Stampede

The Calgary Stampede.

It is once again that time of year. People from across western Canada and beyond flock to Cowtown while dawning their finest western wear to participate in the best outdoor show on Earth. The rodeo sub-culture that completely engulfs Calgary can be witnessed everywhere, but especially during the parade, on the fairgrounds, and of course, at GMC Stadium.

While the public is busy enjoying all there is to do throughout the Stampede, there is a lesser-known side to the festivities that is no less important a facet of the event than barrel racing or bull riding.

Politics.

This isn’t just limited to MLAs and municipal leaders. Federal MPs often make their way down to Alberta’s largest city to engage in the circuit of pancake breakfasts and hospitality suites in an effort to fundraise, sell memberships, and engage with various stakeholders in a casual atmosphere. Even the Prime Minister showed up to flip a few pancakes and shake a few hands.

Stampede 2022 holds special importance in political circles this year as there are two major leadership races happening across the country. Hopefuls for both the Conservative Party of Canada and the UCP will be making the rounds. For some, this may be the last big fundraising push for individuals that are working to meet the entry fee requirement to become an official candidate.

And make no mistake – UCP leadership hopefuls were out in full force all weekend as Stampede festivities officially got underway.

Travis Toews found himself to be a very busy man over the weekend as he participated in numerous events. He spent his Friday at the Stampede parade followed by spending some time at the Calgary Mustard Seed event in downtown. On Saturday, he joined his colleague and Minister of Seniors and Housing Josephine Pon for her Stampede breakfast in her constituency. On Sunday, he spent some time with Fiesta Filipino for a lively event with their community.

Brian Jean was quite a bit less active on social media than the former finance minister, but he kept himself plenty occupied. He shared a moment from Friday’s parade where he riled up a crowd of Albertans on the sidewalk and in a parkade. He also took some time to get a picture with Conservative Party of Canada leadership candidate Jean Charest at a federal party event. Jean also spent some time at the Calgary – Fish Creek BBQ event, home to MLA Richard Gotfried and also attended the StampEID event.

Speaking of conservative leadership candidates bumping into one another over the weekend, Danielle Smith was keen to take some pictures and express support for Pierre Poilievre while she was down in his hometown. Like Jean, Smith also spent some time at MLA Gotfried’s constituency event which was well attended. Both Smith and Poilievre were in attendance at a Conservative Party of Canada led event – an event where, by all accounts, they received the largest rounds of ovation of those in attendance.

Interestingly, it seems like Rajan Sawhney didn’t spend a heck of a lot of time in the event epicenter this past weekend (though there is plenty of Stampede left). She spent some time at the La Due ladies lunch on Friday, but ultimately spent most of her weekend in the capital region, specifically Edmonton, St. Albert, and Sherwood Park.

A number of the candidates also participated in the Mid-Sized Cities Mayors’ Caucus at their Stampede forum, including Leela Aheer, Todd Loewen, Travis Toews, Rebecca Schulz, Danielle Smith, and Brian Jean.

To be abundantly clear, an appearance at stampede will not make or break a leadership candidate’s campaign. Nevertheless, it is a clear cut opportunity to build or capitalize on momentum. We saw candidates employ a few different strategies:

·         Connect with as many people as possible

·         Make strategic appearances and target key allies

·         Focus on other areas of the province while competitors are centralized in one location

Each of the above bring some clear pros and cons. It’s great to meet hordes of people, but it is difficult to make good connections when you bounce around from event to event. Meeting strategic contacts is a great way to leverage their networks to garner support, but you risk alienating a good chunk of your potential supporters. If you choose to be elsewhere, you get to capitalize on regions that are not currently being engaged, but you obviously risk meeting key stakeholders by not going where the crowd is.

Dealer’s choice, really.

As we mentioned earlier in this article, the substantial fundraising requirement from the UCP could prove do be an obstacle some prospective candidates may have some difficulty in overcoming. Alas, we have learned that Mayor of Amisk Bill Rock will be dropping out of the race for that very reason. Rock said in a report that even though he was able to earn a “great number” of signatures, his campaign team was ultimately unable to fundraise enough money to become an official candidate.

It is entirely possible we could see multiple candidates find themselves on the outside of this leadership contest by July 20th.

Unfortunately, we do not have the benefit of recent polling to provide a sense of who has taken an early lead in the race to become the next premier. Of course, it is important to note that it is not the general public voting for a new UCP leader – it is the UCP membership. When the last round of polling was released in June, Danielle Smith and Brian Jean were locked in a statistical dead heat while Toews and the rest of the field found themselves trailing by significant margins.

Given that this race will be utilizing a preferential ballot to decide Premier Jason Kenney’s successor, being a front runner does not mean that they hold an advantage. A quick look at the Conservative Party of Canada leadership races in 2017 and 2020 are prime examples of that concept. In fact, this particular field seems unlikely to produce a winner after the first round, making the second and third place votes absolutely critical to success.

For that reason, this writer would suspect that the future winner may employ similar tactics to former CPC leader Erin O’Toole as a way to garner that secondary and tertiary support required to be victorious on October 6. To accomplish that, the prudent approach might be for candidates to ensure they get in front of their opposition’s supporters and plead their case to be moved to a higher position on their ranked ballot. In a way, that is a near inevitability given the breadth of the United Conservative membership tent, but it also ensures the candidates get in front of most members before the vote.

For this reason, there may be an artificial advantage in place for candidates such as Brian Jean and Danielle Smith. While it is highly unlikely that either could secure enough votes to win the first ballot, initial polling seems to suggest that they have the largest bases of support to speak to. It is also possible that many in the United Conservative Party membership that would have either one of those candidates in first-place also have the other as their second-place vote.

For the candidates who may not expect to be ranked in the top-three positions, it may be necessary to begin giving the Jean and Smith supporters a reason to give their campaign a look. Remember, Andrew Scheer sat in second place for twelve rounds before follow-up support put him over the top in the final round where he went one-on-one against now PPC Party leader, Maxime Bernier.

It is far too early to call the UCP leadership. For observers, pay attention to which candidate’s messaging is driving headlines and how active they are on their respective ground games. That will be the most effective way to determine who is leading the race absent UCP-specific polling.