2026 Spring Session Preview
As Alberta’s Legislature returns, the upcoming session will be defined by the introduction of Budget 2026. With the West Texas Intermediate currently hovering in the low to mid-sixties, the province is continuing to face a challenging fiscal environment driven by insufficient resource revenue. The question regarding the deficit is once again only a matter of size and how convincingly the provincial government can argue that its choices reflect strong economic stewardship in an increasingly uncertain global economy.
Budget 2025 was framed around meeting the challenges of international economic pressures and a rapidly growing population, with significant investments in health care and education to address capacity constraints becoming increasingly visible to Albertans across the province. These underlying challenges have not disappeared. If anything, they have been compounded by broader economic uncertainty heightened by recent American military action in Venezuela and its potential implications for global energy markets. Against that backdrop, the United Conservative government is likely to build on last year’s focus rather than pivot away from it, even as fiscal room tightens.
New projections from Statistics Canada suggest Alberta could surpass British Columbia as the country’s third-most populous province as early as 2038. By 2050, Alberta’s population is expected to land somewhere between 6.5 and 8.1 million people. That growth has been driven by sustained interprovincial migration and a younger demographic profile. The challenge for the government is not simply that Alberta is growing, but that it is growing quickly and unevenly. Much of that pressure has been absorbed by Calgary and Edmonton, where rapid population increases have collided with limited housing supply, infrastructure constraints, and rising costs.
Those population trends inevitably pull the budget conversation back to health care and education. These pressures are visible in emergency rooms operating beyond capacity and schools struggling to keep pace with enrolment. Even in a tighter fiscal environment, it is difficult to imagine a budget that does not include new capital commitments and targeted operating investments.
In health care, expect the government to emphasize infrastructure and capacity over continued structural reform. New hospital projects, expansions, and urgent care facilities remain politically defensible investments, particularly in fast-growing urban areas. At the same time, the workforce remains the limiting factor. Recruitment and retention measures are likely to feature prominently, paired with continued pressure on health administrators to demonstrate productivity and better use of existing resources.
Education will present a similar challenge, but with sharper political edges. Rapid enrolment growth has left many school boards struggling to deliver on class size and staffing commitments, and labour tensions remain close to the surface following recent use of the notwithstanding clause. The NDP will press hard on whether government funding is sufficient to meet those commitments in practice, not just on paper. The government, for its part, is likely to lean on capital announcements and previously allocated funding, arguing that it has laid the groundwork and that results take time to materialize.
Beyond these core files, there will be quieter but no less consequential budget decisions. Ministries such as Arts, Culture, and Status of Women, and Tourism and Sport may find themselves under particular strain. For stakeholders in these areas, the challenge will be navigating a budget environment where maintaining existing funding may be positioned as a win.
One issue that will generate noise well beyond its policy footprint is the government’s decision to order thousands of provincial employees back into the office five days a week, formally ending the hybrid work arrangements that have been in place since the pandemic. AUPE’s response has been to encourage members to brown-bag lunches rather than support downtown businesses. The irony is hard to miss: among the most likely beneficiaries of a full return to office are small businesses in Edmonton ridings represented by the opposition, particularly Edmonton-City Centre MLA David Shepherd.
This leaves the NDP in an awkward position, forced to choose between siding reflexively with organized labour or acknowledging that downtown revitalization and economic activity are priorities for the communities they represent. How the opposition navigates that tension will be an early test of its ability to balance labour relationships with a broader economic message during the session.
Municipal infrastructure will also become an increasingly useful political weapon, none more so than Calgary’s ongoing water system failures and the legacy of the Bearspaw feeder main. The United Conservatives have already shown a willingness to cite the issue as evidence of failed civic leadership under Naheed Nenshi, and it is reasonable to expect the government to return to that line repeatedly in communications and in the Legislature.
For the NDP, the issue is more complicated. While the failures occurred under Nenshi’s watch as mayor, they also expose the long-term consequences of infrastructure underinvestment across municipalities. The opposition will attempt to reframe Bearspaw not as an indictment of one leader, but as a cautionary tale supporting the case for sustained provincial infrastructure funding at a time when fiscal restraint is likely to dominate the budget.
Complicating matters further for the opposition is the timing of the federal NDP leadership race, which is set to conclude on March 29 in the middle of the legislative session. For Naheed Nenshi, certain results would make his task easier. A leader like Heather McPherson offers predictability, familiarity to Alberta voters, and minimal ideological friction. Rob Ashton represents more of a wildcard—potentially energizing a working-class base but carrying uncertainty about message discipline. An Avi Lewis victory, however, would present a far more difficult challenge for the Alberta NDP, reopening fault lines between provincial pragmatism and federal ideology at precisely the wrong moment.
The UCP will move quickly to tie whichever leader emerges to Nenshi and his caucus, reinforcing a narrative that Alberta New Democrats are ultimately answerable to their “Ottawa bosses.” How effectively the opposition resists that framing will shape the political dynamics going into the next provincial election as much as any single piece of legislation.
Separatism will continue to hover in the background of the session. For the United Conservatives, the issue presents a delicate balancing act. While the government must oppose separatism outright to maintain broad public support, it cannot afford to openly alienate a segment of its own base. Premier Danielle Smith is likely to continue navigating that tension by emphasizing practical wins in working with Ottawa on energy and regulatory rollbacks, while simultaneously reinforcing a posture of vigilance on provincial jurisdiction, particularly around immigration and judicial appointments.
The NDP, by contrast, has a far easier lane. With no appetite for separatism within its caucus or membership, Nenshi and his team can present themselves unapologetically as federalists. Expect the opposition to highlight internal UCP contradictions on the issue and position themselves as the only party firmly committed to Canada.
This legislative session is unlikely to be remembered for more dramatic floor crossings or expensive new initiatives. Instead, it will be defined by how effectively the government translates priorities into budgets, infrastructure decisions, and administrative follow-through, while managing a political environment shaped by affordability pressures, labour tensions, municipal challenges, and an increasingly complex federal backdrop. For stakeholders, the real signals will emerge less from headline legislation than from implementation decisions, regulatory direction, and where the government chooses to spend its political capital.