The Politics of Uncertainty: Alberta’s Outlook for 2026
With the advent of 2026, Alberta faces a complex and varied range of anticipated events. With the New Year, Alberta enters renewed discussion around separation, a budget characterised by comparably more restraint, ongoing uncertainty over long promised energy infrastructure, and persistent speculation regarding a possible snap provincial election. While each of these issues would be significant when considered individually, together, they suggest a year for Alberta defined by disruption and uncertainty. The following is a brief examination of how these developments may unfold over the coming months and what they may signal for Alberta’s political and economic trajectory.
Separation
Discourse around Alberta sovereignty and independence is likely to intensify through the early months of 2026, if not longer. In focus will be the May deadline for the Alberta Prosperity Project’s pro-independence petition, enabled by recent legislative changes as of late 2025.
On January 2, Elections Alberta approved a petition led by the Alberta Prosperity Project seeking to initiate a referendum on Alberta’s separation from Canada. Approval of the petition allowed the group to begin collecting signatures as of January 3. This process has been enabled by Bill 14 (Justice Statutes Amendment Act, 2025), legislation passed by the provincial government that removed the requirement for referendum questions to be constitutionally sound at the petition stage. Under current rules, proponents must gather 177,732 valid signatures to advance a referendum question.
If successful, the Alberta Prosperity Project initiative would be the second referendum petition on Alberta’s place within Canada to be formally submitted in recent months. On December 1 of last year, Elections Alberta approved Thomas Lukaszuk’s “Forever Canada” petition, which explicitly affirms Alberta’s continued membership in Confederation. That petition met its threshold with signatures representing approximately 13.6 percent of eligible electors in the province.
The coexistence of these two petitions serves to highlight the degree of polarization surrounding the issue in the province. The Alberta New Democratic Party (NDP) has been particularly vocal in its opposition to the government’s legislative approach, arguing that Bill 14, along with Bill 54 (Election Statutes Amendment Act, 2025), constitutes an overture to pro separation factions within the governing United Conservative Party (UCP). Critics contend that allowing non constitutional questions to proceed risks creating public expectations that cannot be legally fulfilled, ultimately leading to prolonged court challenges should a separation-oriented referendum pass.
From a practical standpoint, the Alberta Prosperity Project petition faces significant challenges. Early indications suggest that signature collection may be slower than anticipated, even with legislative changes that reduced procedural barriers. Any referendum result based on a non-constitutional question would likely require extensive judicial review before any substantive steps could be taken, limiting the immediate policy implications. Nevertheless, the process itself ensures that the subject of Alberta independence will remain prominent in political discourse throughout at least the first half of the year.
Budget 2026
In addition to constitutional debate, the province faces a difficult fiscal environment as it approaches the release of Budget 2026. Provincial officials have signalled that the coming budget is expected to reflect a period of sustained financial pressure rather than surplus.
Treasury Board President and Minister of Finance, Nate Horner, indicated that Alberta could be facing a deficit of approximately $6.5 billion by the summer of 2026. This projection is closely tied to volatility in global oil markets. Alberta’s fiscal sensitivity to oil prices has increased significantly over the past decade. Whereas a one dollar change in oil prices translated into roughly $170 million in provincial revenue fluctuation as of 2016, that same change now represents approximately $750 million. With the recent US intervention in Venezuela, it is as of yet unclear what the impact will of President Trump’s announced shipment of 30-50 million barrels of oil to the States at $50 USD a barrel will be on Alberta.
Given that even modest downward adjustments in oil prices have the potential to alter budget assumptions for provincial revenue and the strength of the energy sector in Alberta, substantial changes to oil prices with one of our largest trading partners are unlikely to exert a positive influence. As a result, Budget 2026 is widely expected to emphasize restraint, namely through a limited scope for new program spending and an impending program review as announced in the October 2025 Speech from the Throne.
The political implications of a constrained budget are notable. A weaker fiscal outlook may reduce the government’s ability to advance high profile policy initiatives, particularly in the lead up to a potential election period. At the same time, the NDP are likely to scrutinize spending priorities closely, positioning austerity and the degradation of services at the centre of the debate.
Energy and Gas
Given the economic impacts, energy policy remains a defining issue for Alberta, with developments in late 2025 initially generating cautious optimism within the sector. In November, the federal government signalled a willingness to cooperate on the construction of a new pipeline to the West Coast, reviving long standing ambitions to secure additional tidewater access for Alberta’s resources.
That optimism, however, has since been tempered by a range of complicating factors. Included among these are the search for a private sector proponent, persistent uncertainty regarding project financing, regulatory timelines, and commercial viability. In addition, opposition from certain First Nations groups continues to present legal and consultative challenges that could delay or reshape any proposed route. Opposition by First Nations groups may be expected to intensify in relation to previously mentioned developments in sovereignty, with a number of Nations announcing their intent to pursue legal action against the government for enabling Alberta independence activities.
Taken together, these factors suggest that while the concept of a West Coast pipeline remains politically significant, tangible progress in 2026 may be incremental rather than transformative.
Snap Election
Overlaying all of these issues is persistent speculation regarding the possibility of a snap provincial election. While Alberta’s fixed election date is not until October 2027, rumours persist that Premier Danielle Smith could seek an early mandate, potentially as soon as the spring of 2026.
Should such a decision be made, it is likely that several indicators would precede a formal writ. Included among these are a pre-election cabinet shuffle and potentially expedited UCP nomination races. Notably, the potential exists for separatist aligned candidates to challenge incumbents in certain constituencies. Given the sensitivity of separatism to the general electorate, it is as of yet unclear how UCP leadership would manage the decision to support such candidates.
For the NDP, attention would likely focus on defending their seats won during 2023 in Calgary, while targeting key swing ridings such as Calgary Acadia and Calgary Glenmore. Nomination contests in these areas will be closely watched as indicators of organizational readiness and candidate strength.
The Year Ahead
As 2026 unfolds, Alberta will find itself embroiled in an ongoing debate over the plausibility of separation, a new era of fiscal constraint, energy uncertainty, and calculations of electoral success. Critically, none of these factors operate in isolation. Budgetary pressures influence political strategy, energy outcomes shape fiscal realities, and separation discourse affects party unity and voter alignment.