At a Glance - Week of September 22
NDP Flips Calgary-Shaw in Close By-Election
Alberta NDP candidate Kyle Campbell won Monday’s Calgary-Shaw by-election, defeating UCP candidate Mike Derry by 582 votes, according to unofficial results. Campbell received 7,461 votes, or 46.6 per cent, compared with 6,879 votes, or 43 per cent, for Derry. Progressive Tory candidate Kyle Joseph finished third with 978 votes.
The result returns Calgary-Shaw to the NDP for the first time since 2015 and represents a significant shift from the 2023 election, when former UCP MLA Rebecca Schulz won 56.3 per cent of the vote. Progressive Tory candidate Kyle Joseph also attracted 978 votes, or 6.1 per cent, in the party’s first election under its new name. That total exceeded Campbell’s margin of victory, although it cannot be assumed those voters would otherwise have unanimously supported the UCP. NDP Leader Naheed Nenshi pointed to the result as evidence of growing competitiveness in Calgary, while Derry congratulated Campbell and his campaign.
Notably, this is the first time a seat has changed parties in an Alberta by-election since 2015, when the Wildrose won former premier Jim Prentice's Calgary-Foothills seat.
Report Estimates Separation Could Cost $170B
An independent report commissioned by the Alberta government estimates that establishing Alberta as an independent country could cost between $50 billion and $170 billion during the first five years following separation. The University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy examined both a “smooth” scenario involving favourable negotiations with Canada and a “difficult” scenario involving prolonged negotiations and reduced market access. Both scenarios anticipate significant short-term economic disruption.
Under the difficult scenario, Alberta’s economy could be more than 16 per cent smaller after 20 years, while the province could face an annual deficit exceeding $30 billion. The more favourable scenario projects potential long-term economic gains, but only under specific conditions including continued market access and sustained high oil prices. Independence advocates have disputed some of the report’s assumptions, while Finance Minister Jason Nixon said the findings demonstrate the significant short-term costs and long-term uncertainty associated with separation.
Canada and Alberta Expand Rural Broadband
The governments of Alberta and Canada are investing $24.8 million in two broadband projects that will bring high-speed internet to 1,833 households in rural and remote communities. The largest portion, $21.9 million, will support a Bearspaw First Nation project serving up to 1,099 households in Kehewin Cree Nation, Foremost, Rocky Rapids and Buck Lake. Canadian Fiber Optics will receive approximately $3 million to connect up to 734 households in five additional communities. Both projects are expected to be completed by March 2028.
The funding builds on the $780 million broadband partnership launched by Alberta and Ottawa in 2022. To date, $646 million has been committed to 82 projects expected to connect approximately 137,100 households. More than 98 per cent of Alberta households now have access to high-speed internet, as both governments work toward closing remaining connectivity gaps in rural, remote and Indigenous communities.
Stephen Harper Backs Carney Trade Pivot, Calls for Energy Push
Former prime minister Stephen Harper offered support for the Carney government’s response to deteriorating trade relations with the United States during his closing address at the Canada Investment Summit in Toronto. Harper said Ottawa had “no choice” but to walk away from negotiations, arguing that Canada must reduce its economic reliance on the United States to protect its sovereignty, despite the significant costs associated with doing so.
Harper also praised the government’s efforts to diversify trade and fast-track major project approvals, particularly in the oil sands, while calling for further regulatory reform to give investors greater certainty. He reiterated his longstanding view that Canada should become a global energy superpower, pointing to the country’s oil, natural gas, uranium, nuclear and renewable energy resources. Harper said expanding Canada’s energy sector is increasingly important not only for exports, but also for domestic industrial development, investment and economic resilience.