Pierre Poilievre Eyes Comeback in Alberta By-election
On August 18th, residents in Battle River-Crowfoot will return to the polls in a federal by-election, setting the stage for Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre’s potential return to the House of Commons. The by-election was triggered following the resignation of incumbent MP Damien Kurek, who stepped aside to clear the way for Poilievre’s candidacy.
Spanning nearly 53,000 square kilometers, Battle River-Crowfoot includes the communities of Camrose, Drumheller, Wainwright and Stettler. It is widely regarded as one of the safest Conservative seats in the country. Still, challenges from Alberta’s separatism movement and the Longest Ballot Committee are leading to a more complicated race.
Poilievre is seeking a seat in the House of Commons following his upset loss to Liberal MP Bruce Fanjoy in Carleton back in April – a riding he held since 2004. Without a seat, Poilievre cannot serve as Leader of the Official Opposition and participate in question period. Former Conservative leader Andrew Scheer was selected by the party to serve in the role temporarily. Poilievre stated that as an MP for Battle River-Crowfoot, he will continue “fighting for oil and gas, low taxes, free enterprise, a strong defense and respect for the West.”
Challenges from the Alberta Separatism Movement
Although a decisive Conservative victory is expected, Poilievre’s decision to run in Alberta is not without political risks. Separatist sentiments are on the rise in the province following the federal Liberals’ victory last spring, despite lagging in the polls for months. A recent poll by Janet Brown suggests that one-third of Albertans believe the province would be better off if it were to separate from Canada.
Alberta Premier Danielle Smith says she’s “never seen such a high level of separatist sentiment” across the province. During a provincial by-election held earlier this month in Olds-Didsbury-Three Hills, a separatist political party received almost 18 per cent of the vote. It is unclear whether a separatist candidate will run in the Battle River-Crowfoot by-election, potentially syphoning votes from Poilievre.
While Poilievre has expressed support for national unity, he has also acknowledged the provinces’ frustrations with Ottawa. During a press conference on Parliament Hill, Poilievre stated that “Albertans want to be part of a united Canada, but they deserve to be treated with respect, and they deserve to be honoured for the immense contribution to this country.”
The issue may prove challenging to the Conservative leader’s prospects nationally. Kory Teneycke, a conservative strategist, commented that Poilievre is about to be dragged into a debate that is “entirely unhelpful for the federal Conservative party.” While Poilievre must appeal to his base in the West, being drawn into separatist debates could weaken his standing in the vote-rich provinces of Ontario and Quebec. It will be difficult to remain silent on the issue as an Alberta-based MP, navigating regional tensions while building a national platform.
Record number of candidates running
The by-election will also break the record for the number of candidates registered on a federal ballot in Canadian history. The Longest Ballot Committee has registered over 200 independent candidates in the riding. The organization has been fielding dozens of candidates in certain races over the past years as a coordinated effort to protest the first-past-the-post system.
The protest group registered 91 candidates in Poilievre’s former riding of Carleton last spring, resulting in meter-long ballots and significant delays in vote counting. In this by-election, there are more than 200 names registered.
In response, Elections Canada announced that it will use an adapted ballot in the upcoming by-election, allowing voters to write in the name of their preferred candidate. Poilievre has expressed frustration with the initiative, calling for a bill to be introduced in Parliament to curb the long ballot protests. “We have to take action because this is a scam. It is unfair, it is unjust and it must stop,” Poilievre stated while speaking at a town hall meeting in the riding.
Another challenge for Poilievre is attempting to match the impressive 83 per cent of the vote Kurek secured in the last election. By-elections typically generate low turnout, and voters may feel disengaged, having to return to the polls shortly after a federal election.
Other candidates have accused Poilievre of not understanding the unique needs of the riding, having resided in Ottawa for most of his political career. Liberal candidate Darcy Spady claims that he has encountered frustration over Kurek’s resignation while door-knocking. “It comes up almost every single time that people are kind of angry that the previous representative got switched on them,” Spady commented.
While the degree of enthusiasm for Poilievre remains to be seen, amid challenges from separatist sentiments and protest candidates, Poilievre will be eager to secure a seat in the House of Commons and reclaim his visibility in the national spotlight.