From Carleton to Crowfoot: Pierre Poilievre’s By-Election Win in Rural Alberta

Pierre Poilievre will be returning to the House of Commons in September following his win in the Battle River-Crowfoot federal by-election on Monday, August 18th. The Conservative leader, who lost his seat in his long-held Carleton riding during April’s general election, now re-enters the House as the representative for one of the safest Conservative ridings in the country. The result, though unsurprising, carries significance both for Poilievre’s personal political future and for the broader federal landscape.

Poilievre captured just over 80% of the vote, securing over 41,000 ballots in his favour, a commanding win by any measure, but hardly extraordinary in Battle River-Crowfoot. The riding has delivered Conservative candidates with similar victories in nearly every election since 2004. In fact, the only Conservative candidate to receive under 80% of the vote for over 20 years was incumbent Damien Kurek, who received 71% of the vote in 2021 but went on to garner 83% during the 2025 general election. Poilievre’s win in the riding was necessary to allow him to continue his political career as a Member of Parliament, but to stay on as the Conservative Party of Canada’s leader, a decisive victory in the riding was a key benchmark. By matching the traditional margin of victory, Poilievre has proven that his leadership remains attractive to Conservative voters.

The second-place candidate, independent Bonnie Critchley, garnered nearly 10% of the vote—almost doubling that of the Liberal candidate. A former military intelligence officer and long-time resident of the riding, Critchley ran a protest campaign against what she described as Poilievre’s opportunistic candidacy. While her message resonated with thousands of voters, especially those who felt disillusioned by Pierre Poilievre’s lack of connection to the region and that his candidacy in the riding was more about protecting his own political standing rather than giving a voice to the residents of the region, it was ultimately not enough to change the outcome significantly. Critchley received 5,000 votes and, though not insignificant, the vast difference between first and second place highlights the limited appetite for alternatives to Conservative dominance in rural Alberta.

The result of the by-election neutralizes what had been one of the most immediate threats to Poilievre’s leadership. Losing two elections in a single year—first in Carleton, then in Battle River-Crowfoot—would have certainly resulted in his replacement as leader of the Conservative Party. Instead, his decisive victory restores some measure of stability heading into the mandatory leadership review in January of 2026. While recent polling done by the Angus Reid Institute shows strong support for Poilievre to remain leader, with 68% of Conservative members backing his bid to continue his leadership of the party, the same survey also showed more worrying answers from those who considered voting Conservative but ultimately did not. A clear majority of these key swing voters do not support Poilievre as leader with just 36% agreeing that he should lead the party into the next election, an early indication that keeping him at the helm may not be the party’s safest route towards future electoral success. The leadership review will take place on January 25th, 2026, in Calgary and while current prospects look good for Poilievre—especially as a Calgarian himself—the political landscape can change quickly. For now, however, it seems unlikely that his performance within the Battle River-Crowfoot by-election will be the issue to undermine him.

Still, questions linger about the implications of Poilievre representing a seat in rural Alberta. Since April, discussion on the issue of separation has grown increasingly more popular amidst a population which has felt overlooked and/or taken advantage of by the federal government; this discussion is especially true within more rural and conservative communities like Battle River-Crowfoot. Having the leader of a major political party as a representative could help to serve as a counterweight. It signals that the riding’s priorities, such as agriculture and energy development, will be voiced in Parliament at the highest levels. Businesses and local community leaders may also find it easier to gain attention for regional projects, leveraging Poilievre’s political status to push their agendas in Ottawa. In this sense, the riding’s influence could extend far beyond what its population would normally command.

At the same time, there is the possibility that Poilievre’s national responsibilities will overshadow his local duties. Constituents will likely notice if he spends little time in the riding, especially in a region where grassroots connection is key and skepticism of Ottawa runs deep. If residents begin to feel as though they are being used as a political base, as suggested by many of Poilievre’s political opponents, disillusionment could harden and feed into the alienation driving separatist sentiment.

Ultimately, Poilievre’s victory in Battle River-Crowfoot was never in doubt, but it still holds implications which stretch beyond a single by-election. It puts him back in the House of Commons, gives his new riding unusual visibility at a key moment, and buys him breathing room ahead of the January leadership review. The next few months will be critical for the opposition leader while he attempts to both dispel the critiques of opponents who insist that he does not value the riding’s constituents, and win yet another election, which would guarantee his leadership within the Conservative Party for the foreseeable future.